[Note: Just as I was finishing up this post, TBV added a comment to the previous post along the same lines, only his is much more succinct.]
As the whole Lance vs. AFLD story is shaping up, it appears to be one of those cases that ultimately boils down to a he said/he said scenario. From what I’ve read and seen, two things seem pretty clear:
- Lance made a mistake by leaving the AFLD collection agent’s sight, and
- The AFLD collection agent made a mistake by letting Lance out of his sight
My own guess at this point is that the following happened: The AFLD’s man was waiting for Lance when he and Johan Bruyneel returned home from a long day of training. Not being convinced by the documentation presented, Bruyneel calls the UCI to verify if the person on Lance’s doorstep really is authorized to take samples. This was a prudent thing to do.
The AFLD’s collector, perhaps being new to the job or perhaps not thoroughly understanding that he needed to keep a constant surveillance on Armstrong until the sample collection was done, allowed Armstrong to go take a shower. This pissed off the collector’s boss, who (according to Bruyneel’s account) made it quite clear he was upset during a phone conversation with the collector.
The collector, perhaps being a meek individual, was afraid of his boss and on returning to the lab with the goods tried to cover up his own culpability by saying that he’d tried to keep Armstrong from leaving his sight, but Armstrong left anyway. The boss insisted on a written report, and that’s the basis of the letter that the AFLD sent to the UCI.
Meanwhile, one wonders why Armstrong — who should know better — would try to leave the collector’s sight. Here’s a novel idea: Perhaps, cagey person that he might be, Lance was testing the tester. If this was a real AFLD collector, the response to the shower request should have been an unequivocal “Non!” Asking to go take a shower might have been a way to see whether this guy was legit, while Johan did the legwork by making the necessary phone calls. Of course, maybe Lance was just feeling kind of scuzzy after a long day in the saddle and he wanted to freshen up a bit. Or maybe he was a bit brain-dead from a hard day at the “office” and forgot that he shouldn’t leave the collector’s sight until the sample-taking was completed. [Update: TBV has an interesting variant of the “brain-dead” theory in this comment to the previous post.]
Bottom line: Two mistakes of roughly equal proportion were made. Lance shouldn’t have gone and taken that shower, and the AFLD collector should have insisted that Armstrong not leave his sight. In a fair system, one might think that the two mistakes would cancel each other out. But the anti-doping adjudication system is not exactly fair. It’s rigged in favor of the ADAs, not the athletes.
Which brings me to this: The way I see this playing out is that the AFLD will pursue some sort of case against Lance for violating the WADA code. If it’s handled in a speedy way (don’t bet on it), then the case will be decided within days or weeks of the Tour’s start in early July. The initial decision, given how the system works, will go against Lance. No disrespect meant to the AFLD, but given that they will not only prosecute, but a panel of theirs will also adjudicate the case, it’s no real stretch to figure that when the decision comes down it will favor their side. That means the AFLD will impose some sort of sanction — if it can do so for a breach of protocol during an out-of-competition test. The sanction, very likely, will apply only to participating in competitions on French soil, so Lance will be able to compete at the Giro and in other races.
If the decision occurs with enough time, I would expect an appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. And if their decision came down quickly, Lance might be reinstated for competition at Le Tour. But I wouldn’t bet on that. The system is rigged, as I said before.
I hate to say it, but the likelihood is that Lance won’t be racing at Le Tour. Which is a shame. I’d like to see him competing there again, to see if he’s still got what it takes to win the biggest, baddest bike race after a four-year layoff. This may come as good news for Alberto Contador, who won’t have to wonder about who Astana’s team leader will be for the event.
If you’ve got tickets to go to France for this year’s Tour, and if you bought them for the sole reason of watching Lance Armstrong compete in the fabled event once again, you might want to double-check whether those tickets are refundable. Same for any organized tours you might be taking over there.
Now, on the upside for Lance, Aspen is truly beautiful during the summertime. If he doesn’t already know the area (he’s got a house there, which he bought last year or the year before), I can recommend many good hikes, mountain bike trails and maybe even even a few road rides he might want to do to occupy his time and train for the next big thing on his comeback tour. Which could be Leadville. It’s only a couple of weeks after Le Tour ends, and it would be his chance to kick Dave Wiens’ tail, all while setting a record for the event. Even better, it’s wickedly good training for the Vuelta a Espana, too.
Unless the AFLD finds a way to save face and back down from purusing a case against Lance for leaving their collector’s sight, Much as I’d rather things were different, I don’t think he’ll be competing at the 2009 Tour de France. Then again, I could be wrong.
