Time Is On Whose Side?

Cue Mick Jagger:

Time is on my side, yes it is
Time is on my side, yes it is

— info about Time Is On My Side available at Wikipedia

In a comment on yesterday’s article, TBV notes that the use of time is one of the strategies currently being played out in the Landis affair. In the beginning, a large amount of the pressure was being felt by the Landis side, trying to get their man back into the racing fold in time to race again in 2007. So the consequent dragging on of the case may have been an attempt by the other side to force Floyd Landis to give, accept whatever punishment they want to dole out, and quietly fade into the background.

Certainly, there were pressures on the other side to wrap things up quickly, but these pressures were at the time of little consequence. Whether the Tour winner is decided in October or March really wouldn’t have any great impact on the anti-doping authorities. Or even the Amaury Sports Organization, who own and run the Tour de France.

But now that the case appears to be dragging out, with no firm date that one can expect a final determination, the question becomes: Whose side benefits from any further delays?

Floyd Landis was recently quoted in an article on ESPN.com as saying he’s written off the 2007 season. By publicly stating he’s not feeling any pressure to get back into the racing fold this year, the advantage of time may well be turning to Landis.

Landis, at this point, has nothing to lose and everything to gain. As long as he has the ability to pay for his defense and meet the normal obligations of living, he has little to worry about how long this case goes on. If it drags out and he loses in the USADA hearing and at the CAS, the suspension he will receive will be dated from the time of his positive test. So the longer this goes, the less time he would have to wait after a negative decision to get back on the road — assuming he still has the appetite for racing at that point.

The other side, however, is in an entirely different position. They have everything to lose and most likely nothing to gain. The Tour organization dearly would love to have a winner determined before the Grand Depart in London come July 7th. Christian Prudhomme is right in one respect, to start the Tour without knowing the official winner of the previous edition will be horrible. And given the speed at which things continue to unfold, it will be very likely.

And the anti-doping authorities stand to lose even more of what credibility they do have should this case drag out and Landis be exonerated. Landis may even have some legal recourse against some of the principals in this case for statements made during the course of this scandal. (Indeed, Team Landis is indicating as much in a press release voicing support for Jean-Francois Lamour’s comments about postponing the AFLD hearings until the USADA case is complete.)

Assuming the ADA side wins, there’s not much upside. Yes, they will have another notch on their six-shooter (number 158 for Tygart and company), but their own behavior in the matter has already cast some serious asperions upon the character of WADA and USADA.

With Landis pretty much accepting that the 2007 season is a wash-out, all he has to do is train, regain form and prepare for the 2008 season — oh, and get this whole doping matter resolved. Assuming he wins in arbitration and at the CAS, he will be able to compete from the beginning of the `08 season (or whenever the case ends in 2008). Assuming he loses, he could resume competition in August 2008. In fact, sitting out 2007 could actually be a plus for Landis.

As Tyler Hamilton observed about his own forced layoff from racing, the time off may wind up extending his career by a couple of years, due to the lower stress on his body during the off years. Hamilton said that he was seriously considering retirement after the 2004 season. Assuming Operacion Puerto doesn’t hamper his return to the peloton, Hamilton may well be racing professionally for several more years.

Dragging this case out, if Team Landis knows they’re going to lose anyway, is not in their interest. It costs them time, money, and ultimately credibility. None of which is in unlimited supply. So, being comfortable with the lengthy process instead suggests that they are pretty confident about winning.

But let’s look at the other side, what if USADA’s Travis Tygart, who will prosecute the case, knows that ultimately he stands a good chance of losing? How can he successfully extricate himself and USADA, without appearing to just fold his tent and run away?

Tygart may be stuck in the position of having to publicly portray himself as the dedicated prosecutor out to convict yet another doping miscreant, all the while knowing he’s going to fail in the end. He can’t let up on the appearance of being tough or his credibility will suffer, as would USADA’s. And he can’t let up on the case due to external pressures from WADA, UCI and the Tour organization. They want the case settled, and they’re pretty adamant in what they think Landis did — and how they think the outcome of this case should go.

The biggest obstacle to successfully backing away from this case may well be all the publicity that it’s received up to this point. Although Tygart has been scrupulously careful to avoid too much commentary about the on-going Landis case, some of his compatriots in other organizations have not been able to resist the siren call of the sound bite. So, to some extent, Tygart can thank people like Dick Pound, Pat McQuaid, Christian Prudhomme and others for the dilemma he currently faces.

Can there be any resolution to this case short of a hearing? At this point it seems hard to imagine, as the anti-doping agencies have pretty well painted themselves into a corner. Especially with the leaks, the public comments and the manner in which the case has been handled up to now.

Team Landis seem to be realistic in how long it will take to resolve this matter, and as long as their resources permit, don’t need to be in any special hurry to get things finished. The pressure now is on the anti-doping side, as they have the greater incentive and need to see the case finished soon.