Interesting happenings in Team Astana land. Today they announced their Tour de France lineup. Nine riders, with four strong contenders for the overall general classification.
Lance Armstrong
The legendary seven-time winner might seem the natural pick for team leader. Armstrong certainly isn’t lacking for competitive fire in the belly with his return to professional cycling. And now that he’s tasted his first win for the season (Nevada City), he might have a thirst for more victories. The only question is: Does Armstrong have the form to dominate the Tour like he did in days of old? From his results so far this season, he’s certainly coming into the kind of fitness he needs to compete in cycling’s equivalent of the Super Bowl. Armstrong is definitely one to keep an eye on this year, and he’ll certainly draw more spectators and fan interest — especially on this side of the pond. Whether he’s a podium contender will become more clear as the race develops.
Levi Leipheimer
Leipheimer is a true workhorse, and a cyclist capable of performing quite well at the Tour. In his last appearance, he managed to land on the third podium step, with a certain teammate of his standing at the top. Last year, he placed second at the Vuelta while helping that same teammate win the overall title. Leipheimer is a strong time-trialist and a very good all-around cyclist. Were it not for the presence of certain other riders on the Astana squad, he would be a shoe-in for team leader. Given his age, he’s reaching the end of his career, so his opportunities to stand on the top step of the podium will be fewer and fewer as whatever remains of his professional career goes by.
Andreas Klöden
Klöden, like Leipheimer, is a rider who arguably could win a Grand Tour at some point during his career. Unfortunately for his own chances, he’s often played the domestique to other star riders. This year, he finds himself in another “always the bridesmaid, never the bride” situation, working to support Astana’s annointed leader. But, should something untoward happen to the designated rider(s), Klöden — like Leipheimer — could still be a contender. Perhaps someday he’ll ride for a team built around himself rather than others. Better do it soon, though, because the timespan for a career in pro cycling doesn’t go on forever.
Alberto Contador
Lance Armstrong may be the ghost of Tours past. And Levi Leipheimer and Andreas Klöden may be the ghosts of Tours present. Alberto Contador is the ghost of future Tours, as well as the 2007 Tour winner. Having performed a hat trick by winning the next two Grand Tours he entered, Contador is one of the very few who have won three consecutive Grand Tours. The young Spaniard comes into the 2009 edition of the Tour as a strong contender for the overall title, and according to today’s announcement on the Team Astana web site, he will be the team’s designated leader. (CyclingNews.com has a story that suggests that Armstrong and Contador will be co-leaders, but the team’s official announcement doesn’t appear to make that statement.) No matter how long Lance Armstrong’s comeback to professional cycling lasts, it’s a good bet that Contador will be competing long after Lance retires once and for all. And it’s a good bet he’ll be a strong Tour contender for some time to come.
Although Armstrong had a strong performance at the Giro d’Italia (12th), he hasn’t yet demonstrated the old patron-like dominance of his earlier days. It would be dangerous to write his chances off, however. And, it could even be that Bruyneel’s real plan is to make Contador appear to be the leader only to draw other teams’ attention away from Big Tex. Still, Alberto has the chops to win the race, though his previous win came in part due to the sudden removal of Michael “The Chicken” Rasmussen just days before the 2007 Tour ended. Once he gained the yellow jersey in 2007, Contador had to fend off Cadel Evans’ attempt to wrest the jersey from him. Evans couldn’t quite pull it off, however. So it would be fair to say Contador earned his victory, despite Rasmussen’s untimely departure.
The timing of Astana’s announcement is quite the coincidence, what with Joe Lindsey’s article yesterday suggesting that Garmin/Slipstream had discussions with Alberto Contador about joining their team in the event that the Astana sponsors didn’t make good on their commitments. If that had happened, the team would have likely scattered to the wind, leaving Contador and the rest of the crew looking for teams for the remainder of the season. (Lindsey also reports that Armstrong and Bruyneel had already put together the groundwork for a Livestrong-Nike team to be born out of Astana’s ashes as well. So at least some of Astana’s riders would have been employed if the current sponsors reneged on their obligations.)
Jonathan Vaughter’s discussions with Contador may point to a possible defection at the end of the 2009 season, when the Spanish rider’s contract with Astana reaches its end. Or, it could lead Bruyneel and company to renew their arrangement with Contador at a higher salary. Either way, it was a shrewd move. One has to wonder if it also helped tip the scales in his favor, when it came time to deciding who the team’s leader would be for this year’s Grand Boucle.
And, if what Lindsey reports is true, one has to wonder whether there are any internal divisions in the Astana squad. If so, there may be some added drama in France this summer, as Armstrong and Contador relive a La Vie Claire moment. A blast from the past, 1986 style. (Just ask Greg LeMond what that was like…)
And speaking of JV and Garmin/Slipstream…
Today’s Denver Post has an interesting article. It turns out that the Boulder,Colorado-based team is making a bit of Tour de France history in the 2009 race. Their Tour roster is the first filled completely with riders from English-speaking countries, according to the Post. I’m not so sure that claim is correct. There may have been one or two fully English-speaking teams back in the 1960s, around the time of Tommy Simpson’s ill-fated ride up Mount Ventoux.
Here’s the secret, behind the scenes story…
Lance will do anything possible to get not one, not two, but three Astana teammates on the podium. I mean it. No particular order, but a sweep. They’ve been 2 for 3 in recent Grand Tours. They’ll sweep the podium, take the money and the recognition for the feat, and use that for either a whole new team, or blow it up and Lance, Inc. can create something else.
The marketing of cycling has been fairly successful in the US, with Lance as the engine. The UCI can embrace it, or ignore it at their own peril. I’m serious. I’m sick of all the missed opportunities to turn this thing in to a real revenue engine on a global scale.
It’s not a surprise to me that Contador is leader. It’s just logical. Armstrong is an unknown, and Contador is a proven commodity.
I can’t believe how nobody is making Hinault/Lemond comparisons. Armstrong will help Contador, and if by chance Armstrong’s “help”
The way everyone talks, there’s a hope that an obvious leader will emerge, i.e. one of the two (or three or four) will simply not be up to snuff. But what if this doesn’t happen?
Imagine Armstrong and Contador are within a few seconds of each other and both in contention. When they’re both in a selection with one other rider for support, who does that third rider focus on? What happens if Contador slips behind? Does Armstrong wait? I doubt it. Does the third rider wait? That’s a more interesting question.
This is the kind of thing they seem to be glossing over in all of the interviews.
As far as Lance not being the patron, I thought it was funny in a recent velonews interview that he seemed surprised that the riders are treating him as much more approachable now.
tom
Here’s a counter POV. The reason Lance, and then Alberto, won their tours is because they had 8 guys working selflessly and tirelessly and clearly for one person. Try as they might, they won’t have that this year. Deep down inside I am sure some of them want Lance to get #8, and some of them want Alberto to put a stamp on the new generations’ arrival. And likely the other 7 will wake up every day wondering if they made the right choice for their internal loyalty. The ‘three Astana’s on the podium’ thought also crossed my mind, but while there may not be another super-contender for the top step this year, there are plenty of spoilers…someone (Levi) will have to make a supreme sacrafice on at least one day in the mountains that will take him out of podium contention.
Ultimately this will be the supreme test of Johann’s skill as a director. If he can get in the head and heart of all 9 guys on a daily basis and infuse them them with the right attitude and objective, based primarily on whether it is Lance or Alberto who is showing the winning form, then they’ll pull it off. If not, they’ll give it away. Alberto will be the strongest “physically’ over 21 days, but winning takes strength in the head, too. It’s up to Lance and Johann to decide whether they are going to help him find and excercise that strength.
No opinion yet from me on Astana and the 2009 TdF, but I was wrong about the Gusev CAS decision being confidential.
You can see it here, but most will need translation:
http://www.tas-cas.org/d2wfiles/document/3355/5048/0/sentence finale 1643.pdf
My quick read is that the decision was made on a contractual basis – labor law.
I need to read a better translation than the electronic one I have and digest the info to formulate a more informed opinion. FWIW.
POWER play? Surely, you must be joking.
His CONSTANT whining & complaining to the media since last September & the frequent declarations of himSELF to be the ONE & ONLY leader of team Astana is a sign of WEAKNESS.
And then at the last minute he tries to ABANDON the team of which he is supposedly THE SUPREME COMMANDER?
A true LEADER COMMANDS respect by his actions. He does NOT need to ask for it, let alone whine, beg, or ‘escape’ to a less powerful team.
Only someone who knows he CAN’T MEASURE UP would even contemplate such a last minute desperation play.
I cheered for Contador in 2007 & was devastated that he, Levi, & the rest of the boys were not even allowed to start the 2008 Tour. And this year, I’ll once again be on the edge of my sofa, cheering on a Johan Bruyneel TDF team. I just won’t be cheering for Contador. I hope Lance KICKS HIS ASS. Up the Pryenees & down the Alps.
BTW, do you believe in ‘signs’? Did you hear about this ‘competitor’, an ‘old dog’ per se, who hails from Texas, had almost died a few years back but some Drs saved his life, who came out of retirement this year & won the biggest event in his sport? No, his nickname is not the “Uniballer” but ‘Stump’ (close enough!) & he won the Westminster Dog Show. Sounds like a ‘SIGN’ to me. 🙂 🙂
Richard,
I can see that they might want to sweep the podium, but I think there are a few others who might have their own designs on glory (like Christian Vande Velde, Carlos Sastre, and Cadel Evans, to name a few). To pull off such a feat will require some superhuman work on the part of the other Astana riders.
Tom,
That seems like a logical comparison, especially if Joe Lindsey is right about the tensions within the team.
Giacomo,
Interesting point of view. I would have to agree that if the team doesn’t coalesce around a leader — whoever the leader is — that they’re in danger of failing to achieve their goals. Armstrong will have to make a real concerted effort to set the example in terms of working for Contador, so that the other riders follow suit. If it turns into an internal struggle for control, I think they’re sunk. And I think you’re right that this Tour will be the biggest challenge of Johan’s career. He’s certainly got his work cut out, trying to motivate all nine riders to work as a cohesive unit.
Jeff,
I figured that the CAS might eventually post the decision, even though I have yet to see a press release on the subject. Sounds like the decision was written in French. I’ll have to take a look at some point, and see if I can make heads or tails of what’s written.
Susie,
A power play only in the sense that Contador may have been trying to force a decision. He’s under contract through the end of this year, so he would have been hard pressed to say, “Hey, if you don’t give me what I want, I’ll bolt.” But if Astana had folded, he was certainly looking out for himself.
I didn’t know that about the Westminster Dog Show, by the way. Seems Lance isn’t the only Texan coming out of retirement this year to compete in his/her sport’s biggest show.
Thanks to Jeff for the link.
I read it, not carefuly nut more rapidly.
TAS concluded that gusev was an employee of Olympus (Astana) because he was used like an employee despite the terms of the contract. So he must be treated like an employee.
Because the original contract don’t specify country, they decided to use swiss labor laws. In that case, to fire an employee, an employer need to have proof of a fault.
By only stating that there were strong suspicions of doping of Gusev, Astana seems to have shooted in their feet. So the TAS ended their ruling here by saying that Astana should have done more testing to probably meet UCI-WADA requirement as their contract stipulates it in case of suspicion.
So TAS did not examine the testing or and his validity.
Jean,
Thanks for the quick summary. Sounds like it was decided based on employment law, rather than on any drug test results. And that the CAS indicated that Astana should have done more testing to confirm their suspicions before letting Gusev go. Seems like a pretty reasonable conclusion.
Rant,
Some friends are thinking that Astana’s house was panicked by the CERA test, and so they deicided to fire Gusev who could have been tested on GIRO.
A positif case would have probably banned Astana for the next TDF stopping the come-back of Armstrong.
We just have to verify if Gusev was tested. Urine or/and blood?
If he was tested only with urine samples he could be not caught as we have seen with Kohl and Schumacher, but when Astana deicded they were not knowing that urine testing was very few efficient for CERA.
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About Astana leadership, I do think that Contador deserves a full team dedicated to him. That was an agreement with Bruyneel.
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Richard,
If Astana sweeps the podium, that would be the biggest farce. That will reinforce the feeling that cycling is still a doping sport despite efforts to clean it. So bike business would probably decrease and organisers would suffer of more sponsoring problems, and so on.
Even a Armstrong’ win would be seen as a very bad sign, sport people believe that Armaury by accepting Lance have done a dangerous bet: more money now but what about next years?
Sorry for the hyperbole. I tend towards a slanted sense of humor. But Lance is angry, Alberto is whiney, and Levi has been both jovial and confident, even though he was at peak from February through mid-May. One can only hope that he has something to give in July.
Jean, man, you can’t show much for your allegations now, can you? Lance has been tested umpteen dozen times this year, as have the others, and the more you allege, the more angry you make Lance. The guy lives on rage, or did. Now, it’s almost like he’s toying with people like you. Accept it. You can’t prove that he’s a doper, so you make allegations that don’t stick. It’s debasing. You can hate him for his personality, his attitude, or even be envious of his success, but you can’t hate him for his training or his talent. Like cream, it always rises to the top.
Levi has a spotless rep. Contador is young, talented, brash. Hmm. Sounds like someone else we know.
I’m going to enjoy every single moment of this Tour, and I’m going to enjoy all the teams and players. While we focus on who did and didn’t do what to themselves, we’re missing a lot of great cycling, and a ton of human effort.
Go racers, go teams, go Tour.
I was hoping Jean C would read the decision, written in French, so that he could be more illuminating than summarizing his friends’ theory. My less than elegant/accurate electronic translation still leaves me to believe CAS ruled in favor of Gusev on the basis of contractual issues involving Astana’s duties related to applicable labor laws.
Then again, there may be something to the theory espoused by friends of Jean C? It seems Astana/JB was in a “damned if I do and damned if I don’t” situation if Gusev’s blood values were suspicious. If that were the case, then firing Gusev was a good move for the team, regardless of the CAS award, as it had the effect of insulating the team from a more costly and probable TdF ban had one of its team members (like Gusev) later been found to be using banned products via the official testing system. In short, it was cheap insurance. That said, I’m not sure how I feel about it. If Gusev was using banned products, then he got much better than he deserved. If Gusev was clean, then he didn’t get nearly enough compensation for his trouble. Either way I see little in the way of guidance from CAS about internal team testing vs. bio passport issues, other than back-up testing, possibly independent back-up testing, is a wise practice for an internal testing program if one of its subject riders trips suspicious values that cause him/her to be dismissed. Seems prudent advise for WADA World too. Goose/gander. Just saying…
I’ll agree with Jean C, and others, that AC deserves a team dedicated to him. In more recent Tours, a team dedicated to one goal (GC Win) and one leader has proven fruitful. However, the Astana TdF Team is extremely strong on paper. Might JB be entertaining trying to make a BH/St. Greggy scenario work for him this July? For those of you who might be entertaining a conspiracy theory that favors LA over AC, I think that is less likely as an obvious LA ally, Horner, was left off the team.
I a bit troubled that some favor engineered results, for the good of the sport. Nothing could be further from the truth. What is best for the sport is for the results to be decided on the road. (Taking a clean win away from Floyd and handing it to OP did wonders for the sport-note sarcasm. Few Spaniards even claim OP as the rightful winner. Removing the Chicken late race in 2007 was similarly egregious. Only AC’s subsequent Grand Tour wins make that circumstance somewhat less farcical) If Astana takes the top three spots on GC, then so be it. I doubt it will happen, but so be it. If some are equating super results from a single team to be an indication of doping, then you are at least implying there was something unseemly going on wrt the 1-2’s by St. Greg and Hinault, and I’m fairly certain you are convinced St Greg rode clean. Goose/gander.
Similarly, if LA wins, then so be it. So be it also if he places, is pack fodder, or abandons. Let’s just have it determined on the road.
Jean,
Could well be that Bruyneel and Astana panicked when they got Gusev’s “suspicious” test results, and not wishing to be kept out of the Tour for a second consecutive year, they quickly let the Russian rider go. I’m a bit skeptical about the Lance connection, however. Armstrong didn’t announce his comeback until three or more weeks after Gusev was released by the team, and although Johan Bruyneel might have known Armstrong was considering a comeback, it wasn’t a given at that point. The CYA (cover your arse) aspect to Gusev’s firing, if that’s what was behind it all, seems more likely to be related to the team as a whole, not one particular rider who might or might not be a part of the team.
Jeff,
In some ways, I think JB and Astana were in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation with Gusev. I think the better approach would have been to bench him, pending further test results. If those had come back bearing out the suspicions, I think the firing would have been justified. Water under the bridge, though. And an expensive lesson (financially) for the team and their directeur sportif.
To everyone,
I’m looking forward to watching the racers duke it out on the road. Vive le Tour!
i wonder how this will play out for astana. i still consider armstrong to be a contender, and this is supposed to be his comeback year. with contador announced as the team’s leader, i wonder if armstrong will compromise another shot at the title.
It’s not unknown that a company or whatever will fire an employee when suspicions arise. Sometimes this can some back to haunt a company if the employee is subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing and decides to take action. Sometimes an employee, especially a lower-level one who might lake financial resources to battle in court, will take a deal by resigning in exchange for not having a firing on his record. And sometimes a clearly guilty employee will be allowed to resign, allowing the firm to avoid the trouble and expense of a termination.
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more comment here on Horner, who by his own account was left off due to “politics” which in this case means a power struggle between Armstrong and Contador, a power struggle which Contador apparently won.
Given what I said above, of course, how could it be otherwise. Contador is officially the leader, and should get what he wants.
But I might find myself sympathetic towards susie’s view. If Johan and Lance really both preferred Horner, then Alberto insisting on someone else only underscores the lack of clear power. Sometimes the strong move is to trust people despite internal conflict.
tom
In this case, power = $ (or $=Power). Astana belatedly paid up. They require someone from Kaz to be on the team. Horner lost out based upon the combination of the sponsor requiring a native rider and the team leader’s (AC’s) wishes. Couple that with the possibility/likelyhood LA will start his own team, and there you have it.
The power struggle thing also assumes there will be GL/BH style infighting. That assumes a lot and I’m not convinced it will happen (it might or might not), but it makes for popular pre-Tour theatre.
Jeff,
I’ll agree with that synopsis. I think a lot of other people are making mountains out of molehills. I still would’ve wanted Horner, but I think when the pedals start rotating, the antagonism and ambiguity will fall away. But the pressure is now on Contador to “Domo Up”, and dictate the terms with his legs and lungs and heart. Should he trip up, however, you’ll see any one of the 3 other supporting actors step up, if it’s not too late.
It seems to me that the politics involved in Horner’s being left off the Tour squad had to do with the sponsor saying, “Hey, we’re paying a boatload of money here. We want a Kazakh rider on the squad.” Contador, being the designated leader, may have had some influence on some of the selections, too. But in looking at the squad, it doesn’t appear that Contador had a hand in more than a two or three selections, if that.
What will be interesting to see is whether there will be any pressure on Astana to make room for a certain Kazakh contender who comes off of a doping suspension on July 24th or thereabouts. When the team originally became Astana, it was built around Vinokourov. Might be that some of those sponsors would like to see Vino in the blue and yellow kit, racing for the “home team.” Then again, if the team becomes Livestrong-Nike next year, that pressure would be off.
Alberto Contador, Lance Armstrong, Andreas Klöden, and Levi Leipheimer were nearly automatic picks.
Yaroslav Popovych was an early pick, announced prior to the final selection.
Sergio Paulinho and Haimar Zubeldia were likely AC pics. Paulinho was in the final selection. I don’t recall about Zubeldia.
Dmitriy Muravyev is a good rider and satisfies the sponsor’s wishes.
That leaves Gregory Rast, who was one of the riders named in final selection, vs. Horner. Rast will be expected to do a lot of towing and fetching, especially on the flat/rolling terrain. Rast is probably a better pick for that job, as it would waste some of Horner’s talents – being able to go on the big climbs, a position which looks well covered, on paper, already.
Jeff,
To hear Chris Horner tell it, your account pretty much jives with his. The only exceptions are that Horner’s version is that Zubeldia was an early pick (not specified by Contador), and that the final spot on the team boiled down to either Paulino or Horner. Paulinho, being Contador’s request, got the nod.
To be fair to Bruyneel, Paulinho has a hefty palamares and he proved his worth as a domestique in Vino’s Vuelta victory a few years back. Also Noval, a perennial Tour selectee and friend of Contador was left off the squad.
Based purely on palmares Horner should have gotten in ahead of Murayev, but Astana is ponying up the cash. But outside Murayev/Horner this is probably the strongest team Astana could send.
ludwig,
That sounds like pretty reasonable summary. I think that if the Astana sponsors hadn’t required a Kazakh rider be at the Tour, that Horner would have been there. Overall, it looks to be a pretty powerful group they’ve assembled. We’ll see how well it plays out starting on Saturday.
Richard,
I am a bit late but don’t worry for Lance, he knows that I know, he knows that it’s too late to convince us that he were clean. Now if he wanted to convince us that he wwas clean on the next TDF he would have realized his personal anti-doping progran with Catlin. He had too much suspicion to be allowed to make errors.
Unfortunaletly for him Kohl, Jaschke, Sinkewitz,… have confirmed what we already know since 1999, extremely difficult to beat blood doped riders.
With power average similar to 2006 Basso on last GIRO, difficult to believe in more cleaness that year but Giro and TDF could be different especially with AFLD.
About Gusev, with a bad apple it’s difficult to win the case, so the best which can be done is to select the less worst choice.
Maybe, to announce that Gusev was putting under more tests would have been the best solution, a positive WADA case would not have more destroyed their reputation that what happened.
Ludwig,
You’re back. Welcome! I just wanted to let you know you’ve become a minor celebrity in small circles. A few friends of mine who were fond of playing “Hi Bob” once upon a time (In “High Bob” you drank beer every time someone said “Hi Bob” on the old Bob Newhart Show) started a new drinking game in which you are the focus.
When they feel a need to get their party on, they just check out your posts at DPF and drink every time one of your posts contain the word “omerta”. They like to drink, so keep up the good work and keep prattling on about the mythical omerta. But I’m not going to play their game. I simply can’t drink that much anymore.
Ludwig,
BTW, no disagreement from me with your post on this thread. Well said.