Is Friday The Day?

In the rumor and innuendo department: The latest is that Friday (the 13th, by the way) will be the day that the arbitration panel will release their decision. Word on the street is that neither the Landis defense team nor the USADA prosecutors have heard a peep from the panel to this point, so it’s all speculation at this point.

But I have this hunch that neither side will hear anything until a few moments before the announcement, when the arbs will send some sort of heads-up to the two sides saying, “The decision is about to be announced. And the media have been alerted. In fact, they should be right outside your door right about … now!”

It’ll happen when it happens. No use worrying about it too much.

True Sportsmanship

You would think, given the turmoil and events of the last year, that Floyd Landis might be a bit bitter about what’s happened. If he is, he doesn’t portray it much in public. At Monday’s book signing in Wheaton, IL he went out of his way to say the following (from cyclingnews.com):

“I appreciate the support and to see you all out here,” [Landis] said. “But let’s cheer the guys [in the Tour] on now.”

That’s a pretty classy thing to say, encouraging cycling fans to cheer on the riders in the Tour. Given all he’s been through, one could easily imagine a quite different sentiment. Earlier in the evening, in referring to when the arbitrators decision would come down, Landis said:

“I hope it is soon, but I also hope it doesn’t take away from the guys who are racing this year. They deserve more credit than they are getting.”

Pretty classy guy for showing so much support to the riders. It’s got to be tough not being there. If you want an excellent example of good sportsmanship, those two comments are the essence of what it means to be a good sport.

Now There’s A Fine Bit Of Logic

One of the more unusual quotes from Monday’s book signing can be found in the Daily Herald:

[Kellyanne] Thomas, of LaGrange, cited Landis’ visible anger when he crossed the finish line and immediately after as very counter to the man she met at the book signing, and a possible sign of ” ‘roid rage.”

“It’s the only thing that, if I hadn’t seen that, I’d have no reason for suspicion,” Thomas said.

I’m not sure I’d call his moment of celebration visible anger, but then, it’s all in the eye of the beholder. At the time, I thought it looked like he just took his frustrations about the previous day’s performance out on the bike. And to me, I saw it was more as a spirit of defiance and vindication.

I don’t know how many races Ms. Thomas has watched, but there’s all sorts of victory celebrations by the winners that would qualify as potential `roid rage going by her logic. Of course, the reporter could have taken her comments out of context.

And Speaking About Context …

Eurosport is reporting that Matthias Kessler is facing a mandatory two-year ban after an anti-doping test turned up a testosterone/epitestosterone ratio of a whopping 85:1. The result was from a surprise drug test taken the day before the start of the Fleche Wallonne. As you’ve no doubt heard, the maximum ratio allowable without going to the more complicated IRMS testing to determine whether synthetic testosterone was used is 4:1. Of course, if the ratio exceeds 4:1 but IRMS testing doesn’t find artificial testosterone, the rider is free to race.

But a ratio doesn’t tell you anything about the actual levels of testosterone or epitestosterone in a person’s system. It just tells you the magnitude of the difference between the two. One could get an extremely high T/E ratio by having virtually no E. So the 85:1 number reported doesn’t automatically mean Kessler is guilty (though it certainly doesn’t make him look innocent, either).

Before you can say whether Kessler tested positive for steroids, you need to see what the IRMS tests say. Nothing in the article says anything about whether IRMS tests were performed or what the results were. Must not have done the tests at LNDD. It would have been all over L’Equipe by now if they’d been the testing lab.

Lastly, Eurosport quotes a familiar face:

Professor Wilhelm Schänzer, Head of Biochemistry at the Cologne Sporthochschule, commented: “a natural level of over 15 to 20 is impossible according to studies carried out so far.”

Remember Professor Schänzer? He was one of the USADA witnesses at the Landis hearings in May. They took his testimony via a conference call. Notice what he says about natural levels. Compare that with the results leaked in the early days of the Landis case. Floyd’s T/E ratio was said to be about 11:1 at the time. Schänzer just said that such a level could happen naturally.

The thing about the reported result for Kessler that has me intrigued is what are the actual values for T and E? If the result is because of an excessively low E, was the amount of E measured less than the lowest accurate measurement possible by whatever instrument was being used for the test?

Not sure what the B sample test will show. But I’m guessing that Kessler is hoping they will come back negative. Meanwhile, Kessler has been suspended by his team pending results of the B sample tests.

Wrapping Up

So, circling back to whether Friday will be the day for the big announcement. I wouldn’t bet on it. But one never knows, stranger things have happened. I won’t hazard a guess about a specific day or date, as my track record for prognostication is decidedly mixed. Just as one doping case in cycling looks to be coming to a close, another one appears to be beginning.